Analytics. Precision. Profit.

A math-first college football model that compares Model vs Market, ranks true edges, and updates automatically. Transparent rules. No hype — just data.

View Top Picks Read the Methodology

83%

2024 Season — Top Picks

Verified log

86%

2025 YTD — Top Picks

Live tracking

~1.2s

Median filter latency

Snappy tables

Real Edges

See where our model and the market disagree — ranked by point delta, not narratives.

Transparent Math

Neutral-field PRs, opponent/tempo/weather adjustments, and published Top Pick rules right in the app.

Built for Speed

Cloudflare global CDN, local caching, and one-tap CSV export for your own analysis.

What you'll get

Model Spread/Total vs. Vegas lines
Opponent-adjusted EPA, Success Rate, Tempo, Red-Zone, Turnover luck
Composite Blowout Score (VDI · X-Delta · RZ-Delta · Vol)
Auto-refresh market odds on game days

No tout talk. Just math you can audit.

Methodology (Short Version)

1) Ratings & Baseline ›

We maintain team Power Ratings on a neutral field, built from drive-level efficiency (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, finishing (RZ TD%), and pace. Outliers are winsorized; priors decay over the season.

2) Context Adjustments ›

Opponent adjustments (schedule strength), tempo normalization, weather impact (wind/rain), and travel/rest are applied to project model spread and total.

3) Market Comparison ›

We compare Model vs. Market from the favorite’s perspective. Edge = Vegas_Spread_T1 − Model_Spread_T1. Sign handling is validated against historical games.

4) Top Pick Rules ›

We only publish Top Picks when multi-signal concurrence is met: spread edge threshold, red-zone differential, turnover-luck reversion, and blowout-score guardrails. Totals are avoided unless both teams show explosive O and poor D (overs only).

5) Audit & Tracking ›

All Top Picks are timestamped and logged. 2024 finished at 83%. 2025 year-to-date sits at 86%. CSV exports allow independent verification.

Explore GridironEdge

Ready to dig deeper? Jump to live Top Picks, model details, predicted scores, or weekly writeups.